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Impact of the Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) growth failure thresholds on mortality among pediatric liver transplant candidates.

Sonja M SwensonJohn P RobertsSue RheeEmily R Perito
Published in: American journal of transplantation : official journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons (2019)
The Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) score is intended to determine priority for children awaiting liver transplantation. This study examines the impact of PELD's incorporation of "growth failure" as a threshold variable, defined as having weight or height <2 standard deviations below the age and gender norm (z-score <2). First, we demonstrate the "growth failure gap" created by PELD's current calculation methods, in which children have z-scores <2 but do not meet PELD's growth failure criteria and thus lose 6-7 PELD points. Second, we utilized United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data to investigate the impact of this "growth failure gap." Among 3291 pediatric liver transplant candidates, 26% met PELD-defined growth failure, and 17% fell in the growth failure gap. Children in the growth failure gap had a higher risk of waitlist mortality than those without growth failure (adjusted subhazard ratio [SHR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-3.02, P = .03). They also had a higher risk of posttransplant mortality (adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.03-2.32, P = .03). For children without PELD exception points (n = 1291), waitlist mortality risk nearly tripled for those in the gap (SHR 2.89, 95% CI 1.39-6.01, P = .005). Current methods for determining growth failure in PELD disadvantage candidates arbitrarily and increase their waitlist mortality risk. PELD should be revised to correct this disparity.
Keyphrases
  • young adults
  • healthcare
  • machine learning
  • body mass index
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  • artificial intelligence
  • electronic health record
  • big data
  • weight gain