Do Non-Communicable Diseases Influence Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa? A Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model.

The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Sub-Saharan Africa has been on the surge during the last two decades. This study examines the relationship between NCDs, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and sustainable development in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We adopt a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to evaluate the association between NCDs and sustainability of development, alternately measured by adjusted net savings and gross domestic savings, in 24 SSA countries, from 1990 to 2017. The results show that NCDs adversely affect sustainable development in the long run. The findings demonstrate an urgent need to mitigate the rapidly rising burden of NCDs. We argue that reducing the current trend of NCDs in the sub-region is necessary for countries to be on a sustainable development trajectory.