Increased Bone Material Strength Index Is Positively Associated With the Risk of Incident Osteoporotic Fractures in Older Swedish Women.

No previous studies have investigated the association between the bone material strength index (BMSi; an indicator of bone material properties obtained by microindentation) and the risk of incident fracture. The primary purpose of this prospective cohort study was to evaluate if BMSi is associated with incident osteoporotic fracture in older women and, secondarily, with prevalent fractures, anthropometric traits, or measurements of bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). In a population-based cohort, 647 women aged 75 to 80 years underwent bone microindentation using the OsteoProbe device. Data on clinical risk factors (CRFs), prevalent fractures, and incident fractures were collected using questionnaires, medical records, and a regional X-ray archive. BMD and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) were assessed by DXA (Hologic, Discovery A). Associations between BMSi, anthropometrics, BMD, and prevalent fractures were investigated using correlation and linear and logistic regression. Cox proportional hazards and competing risks analysis by Fine and Gray were used to study the association between BMSi and the risk of fracture and mortality. BMSi was weakly associated with age (r = -0.13, p < 0.001) and BMI (r = -0.21, p < 0.001) and with BMD of lumbar spine (β = 0.09, p = 0.02) and total hip (β = 0.08, p = 0.05), but only after adjustments. No significant associations were found between BMSi and prevalent fractures (self-reported and/or VFA identified, n = 332). During a median follow-up time of 6.0 years, 121 major osteoporotic fractures (MOF), 151 any fractures, and 50 deaths occurred. Increasing BMSi (per SD) was associated with increased risk of MOF (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.56), any fracture (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.09-1.53), and mortality (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.07-1.93). The risk of fracture did not materially change with adjustment for confounders, CRFs, femoral neck BMD, or when considering the competing risk of death. In conclusion, unexpectedly increasing BMSi was associated with greater fracture risk. The clinical relevance and potential mechanisms of this finding require further study. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).