Is the assumption of waning of treatment effect applied consistently across NICE technology appraisals? A case-study focusing on disease-modifying therapies for treatment of multiple sclerosis.

Modeling the long-term effect of therapies is challenging, especially given the limited follow-up duration of related trials. This generates recurrent debates on the presence of waning of treatment efficacy and heterogeneity across appraisals. More refined recommendations obtained by consensus among stakeholders could help to achieve greater consistency in decision making.