Using Metrics of a Mixture Effect and Nutrition from an Observational Study for Consideration towards Causal Inference.

Environmental exposures to a myriad of chemicals are associated with adverse health effects in humans, while good nutrition is associated with improved health. Single chemical in vivo and in vitro studies demonstrate causal links between the chemicals and outcomes, but such studies do not represent human exposure to environmental mixtures. One way of summarizing the effect of the joint action of chemical mixtures is through an empirically weighted index using weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression. My Nutrition Index (MNI) is a metric of overall dietary nutrition based on guideline values, including for pregnant women. Our objective is to demonstrate the use of an index as a metric for more causally linking human exposure to health outcomes using observational data. We use both a WQS index of 26 endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and MNI using data from the SELMA pregnancy cohort to conduct causal inference using g-computation with counterfactuals for assumed either reduced prenatal EDC exposures or improved prenatal nutrition. Reducing the EDC exposure using the WQS index as a metric or improving dietary nutrition using MNI as a metric, the counterfactuals in a causal inference with one SD change indicate significant improvement in cognitive function. Evaluation of such a strategy may support decision makers for risk management of EDCs and individual choices for improving dietary nutrition.