When are populations not connected like a circuit? Identifying biases in gene flow from coalescent times.

Connectivity and movement patterns of populations are influenced by past and present environmental and biotic factors, which are reflected in genetic relatedness among populations. Methods that estimate the "commute time" between populations based on electrical resistance (i.e., isolation-by-resistance [IBR]) have been widely applied to either infer movement patterns directly from environmental factors or detect possible barriers to gene flow given empirical genetic relatedness. Yet, the commute time is only equivalent to the coalescence time between populations under symmetric migration with isotropic landscapes. Asymmetric gene flow is relatively common when populations are expanding, retreating, or with source-sink dynamics. In a From the Cover paper in this issue of Molecular Ecology Resources, Lundgren and Ralph (Molecular Ecology Resources, 19, 2019) describe a Bayesian method to infer bidirectional gene flow rates and population sizes without the assumption of symmetry. The method shows great accuracy in connectivity estimations under symmetric, as well as asymmetric gene flow scenarios where resistance methods fail. However, computational complexity limits the method to a few populations, preventing its application to finescale environmental maps. Also, as a discrete-deme static model, the inferred differences in gene flow rates are sensitive to population discretization and cannot be directly used to differentiate among processes (e.g., past expansion vs. current barrier). Here, we discuss scenarios where the new method can best be utilized and provide potential directions to identify the underlying processes causing deviations in gene flow patterns.