Struggling With Change: The Fragile Resilience of Collectives.

Collectives form nonequilibrium social structures characterized by volatile dynamics. Individuals join or leave. Social relations change quickly. Therefore, unlike engineered or ecological systems, a resilient reference state cannot be defined. We propose a novel resilience measure combining two dimensions: robustness and adaptivity. We demonstrate how they can be quantified using data from a software-developer collective. Our analysis reveals a resilience life cycle (i.e., stages of increasing resilience are followed by stages of decreasing resilience). We explain the reasons for these observed dynamics and provide a formal model to reproduce them. The resilience life cycle allows distinguishing between short-term resilience, given by a sequence of resilient states, and long-term resilience, which requires collectives to survive through different cycles.