An easy-to-use scoring system for predicting bacteraemia with third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales in a low-resistance setting.

Background: The incidence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacterales (3GCR-E) is increasing and a growing number of patients risk receiving inappropriate initial antibiotic treatment. Published scoring systems for predicting 3GCR-E bacteraemia are mostly based on studies from countries with a high incidence. In this study, we aimed to create an easy-to-use scoring system for predicting bacteraemia with these bacteria in a low-resistance setting.Materials and methods: Factors associated with 3GCR-E were studied retrospectively in a cohort of patients with Enterobacterales bacteraemia using uni- and multivariate analysis. A scoring system was constructed and was validated in a separate cohort of patients with Enterobacterales bacteraemia.Results: The derivation cohort comprised 625 cases of Enterobacterales bacteraemia. Three variables (previous hospital care abroad, 3GCR-E in a previous blood or urine culture and 3GCR-E in a previous rectal swab culture) were significantly associated with 3GCR-E bacteraemia. A scoring system, where at least one positive parameter equalled a positive score, was studied in the validation cohort, which comprised 675 cases of Enterobacterales bacteraemia. The sensitivity and specificity of the score were 53% and 95%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 38% and 97%, respectively.Conclusions: This study presents an easy-to-use scoring system for predicting bacteraemia with 3GCR-E. The performance of the score is similar to that of several other, more complicated, scoring systems, developed in countries with higher rates of resistance. The minimal extra effort required to use this new score could facilitate its introduction into clinical routine.