Warming alters the interaction of two invasive beachgrasses with implications for range shifts and coastal dune functions.

Forecasting the effects of climate change on the distribution of invasive species can be difficult, because invaders often thrive under novel physical conditions and biotic interactions that differ from those in their native range. In this study, we experimentally examined how rising temperatures and sand burial could alter the abundance and biotic interactions of two invasive beachgrasses, Ammophila arenaria and A. breviligulata, along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast. We asked whether the current geographic ranges of the two congeners, and thus their effects on dune morphology and coastal ecosystem services, might shift as a consequence of climate driven changes in warming and sand supply. Our results show that A. breviligulata had lower biomass and tiller production when exposed to warming and high rates of sand burial, while A. arenaria showed neutral or positive responses to those treatments. Nevertheless, under all experimental combinations, A. breviligulata had strong negative effects on A. arenaria, while A. arenaria had weaker effects on A. breviligulata. Our models predict that although A. breviligulata mostly excludes A. arenaria, elevated temperatures and high rates of sand burial also increase the likelihood of species coexistence. We suggest that under climate change, the differences in physiological tolerance and the mediation of species interactions could expand the northern distributional limit of A. arenaria but restrict the southern limit of A. breviligulata. Moreover, because beachgrass abundance has direct effects on biophysical functions of dunes, reductions in vigor from warming could alter coastal protection, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration.