Vulnerability of biological resources to potential oil spills in the Lower Amazon River, Amapá, Brazil.

Ships that transport oil or derivatives on the Lower Amazon River waterway are at a considerably high risk of suffering spills, with severe environmental and socioeconomic consequences. The present study is aimed at modeling and simulating the oil dispersion and magnitude of these accidents in terms of the vulnerability of biological resources, considering two oil types most often transported by medium-sized tankers in the region (S500 and S10). The study method was as follows: (a) secondary data were collected from local species, and the coastal sensitivity index (CSI) was calculated, obtained from Brazil's Letters of Environmental Sensitivity to Oil Spill (Cartas de Sensibilidade Ambiental ao Derramamento de Óleo (SAO)); (b) ship traffic information was obtained from Brazil's Statistical Yearbook of Waterway (Anuário Estatístico Aquaviário (ANTAQ)); (c) modeling and numerical simulation of oil spills in water were performed, in order to investigate dispersion scenarios (SisBaHia); (d) three numerical scenarios of oil plume dispersion (in May and November) were integrated to assess species vulnerability in three zones of environmental interest (I, II, and III). Some species identified in zone II were considered to be the most vulnerable (fish, plankton, aquatic mammals, amphibians, aquatic invertebrates, trees, and plants), with the mammal Sotalia fluviatilis being at risk of extinction (Gervais & Deville, 1853). The simulated scenarios showed that contingency plans should have a minimum response time of 3 h and a maximum response time of 72 h to prevent the oil plumes from dispersing as far as 170 km longitudinally, depending on the zone, season, and tidal phase. Thus, a total of 62 sites of biological resources were identified in the literature recorded from 2016. Considering them, 324 species of flora and fauna were recorded, distributed in the following seven groups: (i) 49 tree and plant species, (ii) 37 amphibian species, (iii) 2 aquatic invertebrate species, (iv) 23 invertebrate species, (v) 1 aquatic mammal species, (vi) 95 fish species, and (vii) 117 planktonic species. A failure to respond to these accidents would impact immense intact aquatic areas and ecosystems, with unpredictable consequences for local biodiversity conservation.