The callus fracture sign: a radiological predictor of progression to hypertrophic non-union in diaphyseal tibial fractures.

We report a radiological sign which predicts progression to hypertrophic non-union for fractures of the tibial diaphysis. Radiographs of 46 tibial fractures were reviewed independently by four orthopaedic trauma surgeons and two musculoskeletal radiologists. Patients were identified from a database of tibial fractures managed with Ilizarov frame fixation. There were 23 fractures that progressed to non-union requiring further surgery. The controls were 23 fractures that had united without need for further surgery at 1-year follow-up. Radiographs selected were the first images taken following frame removal. All radiographs were anonymised and randomized prior to review. Presence of the callus fracture sign was identified in 16 radiographs of the fractures that progressed to non-union, and 7 of the united fracture group. Sensitivity is 69.6 %. Specificity is 91.4 %. Positive and negative predictive values are 88.9 and 75.0 %, respectively. These results compare favourably with computerised tomography for predicting non-union. Intra- and inter-observer reliability was good (κ = 0.68), and moderate (κ = 0.57), respectively. The callus fracture sign is a useful radiological predictor of progression to non-union and may represent insufficient mechanical stability at the fracture site.