Spatial Moment Description of Birth-Death-Movement Processes Incorporating the Effects of Crowding and Obstacles.

Birth-death-movement processes, modulated by interactions between individuals, are fundamental to many cell biology processes. A key feature of the movement of cells within in vivo environments is the interactions between motile cells and stationary obstacles. Here we propose a multi-species model of individual-level motility, proliferation and death. This model is a spatial birth-death-movement stochastic process, a class of individual-based model (IBM) that is amenable to mathematical analysis. We present the IBM in a general multi-species framework and then focus on the case of a population of motile, proliferative agents in an environment populated by stationary, non-proliferative obstacles. To analyse the IBM, we derive a system of spatial moment equations governing the evolution of the density of agents and the density of pairs of agents. This approach avoids making the usual mean-field assumption so that our models can be used to study the formation of spatial structure, such as clustering and aggregation, and to understand how spatial structure influences population-level outcomes. Overall the spatial moment model provides a reasonably accurate prediction of the system dynamics, including important effects such as how varying the properties of the obstacles leads to different spatial patterns in the population of agents.