Optimizing efficiency and resilience of no-take marine protected areas for fish conservation under climate change in coastal China Seas.

Climate change is one of the major threats to coastal fish biodiversity, and optimization of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) is imminent. This work applied Joint Species Distribution Modeling to predict fish redistribution under climate change in coastal China Seas, performed conservation prioritization by Zonation software with the methods of Core Area Zonation (CAZ) and Additive Benefit Function (ABF), and proposed the expansion of no-take MPAs. Fish were redistributed northward under climate change in coastal China Seas. These redistributions were segmented by the Yangtze River Estuary and its adjacent waters, indicating a possible biogeographical barrier. Conservation performances under CAZ and ABF were both significantly higher than random prioritization (p < 0.001; Cohen's d effect size was -0.36 and -0.62, respectively). ABF better represented the habitats with higher species richness, whereas CAZ better represented the core habitats for species with low distributions. Without accounting for species redistribution, the expanded MPAs were mainly distributed in the northwest of the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the north of the Yellow Sea, and the west of the Bohai Sea. With accounting for species redistribution, the expanded MPAs were more distributed in the north of the Bohai Sea and southwest of the Yellow Sea, corresponding to the northern species redistributions. Conservation performance of the proposed MPAs with accounting for species redistribution was lower for species at present than the proposed MPAs without, but the performance for future species in 2050 and 2100 was higher and gradually improved, indicating improved resilience for coastal fish conservation under climate change. Incorporating species redistribution and trade-offs between habitats with high species and habitats for rare species are suggested to address coastal fish conservation under climate change. This work provides valuable information for fish conservation and is precursory for systematic conservation planning in coastal China Seas. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.