Early prediction of clinical response in first episode schizophrenia (FES) patients receiving olanzapine.

Background: At present, schizophrenia guidelines recommend waiting for 8 weeks before considering a patient as non-responder. This study aims to detect the optimal early response threshold that best predict the final outcome of olanzapine.Methods: The study was conducted for 8-week, four points follow up (week 2,3,4, and 8) prospective observational study. A reduction of 20, 25, 30% in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) score from the base line at week 2,3, and 4 respectively were considered as early response. A reduction of 50% at week 8 was considered as responders. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were performed to detect the optimal threshold.Results: Mean total baseline PANSS score was 106.66(95% CI; 100.4, 112.9). Week 2 (AUC = 50.5%, p > 0.964) and week 3 (AUC = 64.9, p > 0.13) responses failed to predict the 8th week response. Week 4 response (AUC = 92%, p < 0.001) can be taken for the prediction of 8th week response (specificity = 72%, sensitivity = 100%, Positive Predictive Value = 61.1%, Negative Predictive Value = 100% and Optimum Early Response (OER) = 29.4%). 25 patients (69%) achieved more than 50% reduction (responders) in PANSS score after 8 weeks of treatment.Conclusions: Our study suggests that patients with early response at week 4 are likely to achieve positive response after 8 weeks. This may help in appropriate clinical decision making for early non-responders.Key PointsThe early response can forecast the outcome at the endpoint for the treatment of FESA reduction of baseline PANSS score by 30% or more after four weeks are likely to have remission after week 8 with olanzapine therapy.