Evaluation of the mid- and long-term effects of a private car driving-restriction policy under the carbon emission peak target.

To investigate the medium- and long-term effects of a driving-restriction policy under the guidance of carbon emission peak goals, Beijing was taken as an example to construct a private-car energy-conservation and emission-reduction model with dual-driving factors from the perspective of the economy, environment, technology, and energy. Through causal analysis, the negative effects of a driving-restriction policy were revealed. The simulation results revealed the following. (1) A driving-restriction policy is effective in the short term, but in the long run, it cannot effectively reduce CO 2 emissions and the quantity of fuel used in private cars (e.g., the increase in the amount of CO 2 pollution and degree of parking space tension, as well as the rebound of air pollution). (2) Compared with the driving-restriction policy, the combined policy reduces the amount of CO 2 pollution by approximately 52.45%, the PM2.5 concentration by 21.98%, and the quantity of fuel in private cars by 33.42% by 2035, while improving the air quality by approximately 144.79%. Therefore, this article provides a theoretical basis for optimizing driving-restriction policies and achieving the carbon emission peak target.