A prognostic baseline blood biomarker and tumor growth kinetics integrated model in paclitaxel/platinum treated advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Paclitaxel/platinum chemotherapy, the backbone of standard first-line treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), exhibits high interpatient variability in treatment response and high toxicity burden. Baseline blood biomarker concentrations and tumor size (sum of diameters) at week 8 relative to baseline (RS8) are widely investigated prognostic factors. However, joint analysis of data on demographic/clinical characteristics, blood biomarker levels, and chemotherapy exposure-driven early tumor response for improved prediction of overall survival (OS) is clinically not established. We developed a Weibull time-to-event model to predict OS, leveraging data from 365 patients receiving 3-weekly paclitaxel/platinum combination chemotherapy for ≤6 cycles. A developed tumor growth inhibition model, combining linear tumor growth and first-order paclitaxel area under the concentration-time curve-induced tumor decay, was used to derive individual RS8. The median model-derived RS8 in all patients was a 20.0% tumor size reduction (range: -78%, +15%). While baseline carcinoembryonic antigen, cytokeratin fragments and thyroid stimulating hormone levels were not significantly associated with OS in a subset of 221 patients, and lactate dehydrogenase, interleukin-6 and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio levels were significant only in univariate analyses (p-value<0.05), C-reactive protein in combination with RS8 most significantly affected OS (p-value<0.01). Compared to the median population OS of 11.3 months, OS was 128% longer at the 5 th percentile levels of both covariates and 60% shorter at their 95 th percentiles levels. The combined paclitaxel exposure-driven RS8 and baseline blood CRP concentrations enables early individual prognostic predictions for different paclitaxel dosing regimens, forming the basis for treatment decision and optimizing paclitaxel/platinum-based advanced NSCLC chemotherapy.