Increasing disparities in obesity and severe obesity prevalence among public elementary and middle school students in New York City, school years 2011-12 through 2019-20.

Recent national trends in the United States indicate a significant increase in childhood obesity, a major public health concern with documented physical and mental comorbidities and sociodemographic disparities. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity among youth in New York City (NYC) before the COVID-19 pandemic and examine time trends overall and by key characteristics. We included all valid height and weight measurements of kindergarten through 8th grade public school students aged 5 to 15 from school years 2011-12 through 2019-20 (N = 1,370,890 unique students; 5,254,058 observations). Obesity and severe obesity were determined using age- and sex-specific body mass index percentiles based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth charts. Analyses were performed using multivariate logistic regression models with repeated cross-sectional observations weighted to represent the student population for each year and clustered by student and school. Among youth attending public elementary and middle schools in NYC, we estimate that 20.9% and 6.4% had obesity and severe obesity, respectively, in 2019-20. While consistent declines in prevalence were observed overall from 2011-12 to 2019-20 (2.8% relative decrease in obesity and 0.2% in severe obesity, p<0.001), increasing trends were observed among Black, Hispanic, and foreign-born students, suggesting widening disparities. Extending previous work reporting prevalence estimates in this population, nearly all groups experienced significant increases in obesity and severe obesity from 2016-17 to 2019-20 (relative change = 3.5% and 6.7%, respectively, overall; p<0.001). Yet, some of the largest increases in obesity were observed among those already bearing the greatest burden, such as Black and Hispanic students and youth living in poverty. These findings highlight the need for greater implementation of equity-centered obesity prevention efforts. Future research should consider the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in clinical guidance on childhood obesity and severe obesity in NYC.