Inferring causal cell types of human diseases and risk variants from candidate regulatory elements.

The heritability of human diseases is extremely enriched in candidate regulatory elements (cRE) from disease-relevant cell types. Critical next steps are to infer which and how many cell types are truly causal for a disease (after accounting for co-regulation across cell types), and to understand how individual variants impact disease risk through single or multiple causal cell types. Here, we propose CT-FM and CT-FM-SNP, two methods that leverage cell-type-specific cREs to fine-map causal cell types for a trait and for its candidate causal variants, respectively. We applied CT-FM to 63 GWAS summary statistics (average N = 417K) using nearly one thousand cRE annotations, primarily coming from ENCODE4. CT-FM inferred 81 causal cell types with corresponding SNP-annotations explaining a high fraction of trait SNP-heritability (∼2/3 of the SNP-heritability explained by existing cREs), identified 16 traits with multiple causal cell types, highlighted cell-disease relationships consistent with known biology, and uncovered previously unexplored cellular mechanisms in psychiatric and immune-related diseases. Finally, we applied CT-FM-SNP to 39 UK Biobank traits and predicted high confidence causal cell types for 2,798 candidate causal non-coding SNPs. Our results suggest that most SNPs impact a phenotype through a single cell type, and that pleiotropic SNPs target different cell types depending on the phenotype context. Altogether, CT-FM and CT-FM-SNP shed light on how genetic variants act collectively and individually at the cellular level to impact disease risk.