The socio-spatial determinants of COVID-19 diffusion: the impact of globalisation, settlement characteristics and population.

Model results confirm that globalisation, settlement and population characteristics, and variables tied to high human mobility lead to greater reported disease diffusion. These outcomes serve to inform suppression strategies, particularly as they are related to anticipated relocation diffusion from more- to less-developed countries and regions, and hierarchical diffusion from countries with higher population and density. It is likely that many of these processes are replicated at smaller geographical scales both within countries and within regions. Epidemiological strategies must therefore be tailored according to human mobility patterns, as well as countries' settlement and population characteristics. We suggest that limiting human mobility to the greatest extent practical will best restrain COVID-19 diffusion, which in the absence of widespread vaccination may be one of the best lines of epidemiological defense.