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Construction of a simulation model and evaluation of the effect of potential interventions on the incidence of diabetes and initiation of dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy in Japan.

Takahiro SugiyamaSayuri GoryodaKaori InoueNoriko Sugiyama-IhanaNobuo Nishi
Published in: BMC health services research (2017)
We successfully developed a simulation model to project the number of patients with diabetes and those on dialysis due to diabetic nephropathy. Simulation experiments using the model suggested that, as far as the perspective of the next 20 years, intervention to prevent dialysis is an important means of bending the increasing curve of dialysis in the population with diabetes. Simulation analysis may be useful when making and evaluating health policies related to diabetes and other chronic diseases.
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