Fall into the pseudo-decoupling trap: Type identification, trend characterization and solution path of carbon decoupling trap in urban agglomerations of China.

This study investigates the stability and sustainability of carbon decoupling in urban agglomerations across China, where the strong coupling between economic growth and carbon emissions poses significant challenges. Despite efforts in energy conservation and emission reduction, urban agglomerations have seen unsatisfactory results. By analyzing the real-pseudo decoupling states in 19 urban agglomerations from 2007 to 2020, the objective of this study is to identify the type and trend characteristics of carbon decoupling traps and to propose solution paths for maintaining decoupling stability. Major Findings: (1) The decoupling state exhibits volatility and instability in urban agglomerations, making them susceptible to decoupling traps. (2) Most urban agglomerations remain un-decoupled, with a few cities achieving real decoupling and gradually shifted from northeast to southeast, while pseudo-decoupling and un-decoupled cities consistently cluster in the southwest and northwest regions. (3) Real-pseudo decoupling is driven by a combination of endogenous and exogenous factors, with energy structure, population density, and environmental regulation intensity emerging as pivotal influencers. (4) Geographical factors exhibit both commonalities and variations in their impact on real-pseudo decoupling. By identifying real-pseudo decoupling states and their driving factors, this study proposes strategic solution paths to overcome carbon constraints and achieve stable decoupling in urban agglomerations, contributing to the broader goals of sustainable economic and environmental development.