The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.
Samantha BentsCécile ViboudBryan GrenfellAlexandra HoganStefano TempiaAnne von GottbergJocelyn MoyesSibongile WalazaCheryl CohenRachel BakerPublished in: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences (2022)
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in order to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to mitigating transmission of SARS-CoV-2, these public health measures have also functioned in slowing the spread of other endemic respiratory pathogens. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates low circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 Southern Hemisphere winter seasons. Here we fit age-structured epidemiological models to national surveillance data to predict the 2022 RSV outbreak following two suppressed seasons. We project a 32% increase in the peak number of monthly hospitalizations among infants ≤ 2 years, with older infants (6-23 month olds) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. Our results suggest that hospital system readiness should be prepared for an intense RSV season in early 2022.
Keyphrases
- respiratory syncytial virus
- sars cov
- public health
- south africa
- physical activity
- respiratory syndrome coronavirus
- quality improvement
- hiv positive
- electronic health record
- big data
- coronavirus disease
- healthcare
- global health
- current status
- gram negative
- antimicrobial resistance
- middle aged
- risk factors
- multidrug resistant
- adverse drug
- men who have sex with men
- acute care
- machine learning
- antiretroviral therapy