Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.
Weibin ChengHanchu ZhouYang YeYifan ChenFengshi JingZhidong CaoDaniel Dajun ZengQingpeng ZhangPublished in: Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.) (2023)
The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking.
Keyphrases
- infectious diseases
- coronavirus disease
- sars cov
- current status
- cancer therapy
- end stage renal disease
- ejection fraction
- early onset
- chronic kidney disease
- physical activity
- peritoneal dialysis
- prognostic factors
- emergency department
- gene expression
- drug induced
- drug delivery
- social support
- depressive symptoms
- acute care
- respiratory tract
- adverse drug