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A COVID-19 cluster analysis in an office: Assessing the long-range aerosol and fomite transmissions with infection control measures.

Atsushi MizukoshiJiro OkumuraKenichi Azuma
Published in: Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis (2023)
Simulated exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the environment was demonstrated based on the actual coronavirus disease 2019 cluster occurrence in an office, with a projected risk considering the likely transmission pathways via aerosols and fomites. A total of 35/85 occupants were infected, with the attack rate in the first stage as 0.30. It was inferred that the aerosol transmission at long-range produced the cluster at virus concentration in the saliva of the infected cases on the basis of the simulation, more than 10 8  PFU mL -1 . Additionally, all wearing masks effectiveness was estimated to be 61%-81% and 88%-95% reduction in risk for long-range aerosol transmission in the normal and fit state of the masks, respectively, and a 99.8% or above decline in risk of fomite transmission. The ventilation effectiveness for long-range aerosol transmission was also calculated to be 12%-29% and 36%-66% reductions with increases from one air change per hour (ACH) to two ACH and six ACH, respectively. Furthermore, the virus concentration reduction in the saliva to 1/3 corresponded to the risk reduction for long-range aerosol transmission by 60%-64% and 40%-51% with and without masks, respectively.
Keyphrases
  • coronavirus disease
  • respiratory syndrome coronavirus
  • water soluble
  • sars cov
  • randomized controlled trial
  • blood pressure
  • mechanical ventilation
  • data analysis