Retrospective evaluation of short-term forecast performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time-series models: The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak across multiple geographical scales, July 14 th , 2022, through February 26th, 2023.

-sub-epidemic unweighted model and spatial-wave framework performed best overall based on average 95% PI coverage, and we noted widespread success for both frameworks in average Winkler scores. The considerable success seen with both frameworks highlights the continued utility of sub-epidemic methodologies in producing short-term forecasts and their potential application to other epidemiologically different diseases.