Spatial autocorrelation and epidemiological survey of visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area of Azerbaijan region, the northwest of Iran.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a common infectious disease that is endemic in Iran. This study aimed to investigate the spatial autocorrelation of VL in the northwest of Iran. In this cross-sectional study, the data of all patients were collected in 2009-2017 and analyzed by SPSS23 and Moran's and General G Index. The MaxEnt3.3.3 software was used to determine the ecological niche. A big hot spot area was identified in five counties in the northwest of Iran. More than 70% of the cases were reported from these regions, and the incidence rate increased in the northwest of Iran from 2013 to 2017. Seasonal rainfall and average daily temperature were the most important climate variables affecting the incidence of VL in this region (p < 0.05). Therefore, it can be concluded that VL in the northwest of Iran is expanding to new areas along the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the northeastern section of this region is a high-risk area.