Smoking and healthcare expenditure reductions associated with the California Tobacco Control Program, 1989 to 2019: A predictive validation.

A simple predictive model of the effectiveness of the CTCP program remained stable and retains its predictive performance out-of-sample. The updated estimates of program effect suggest that CTCP program has retained its effectiveness over its 31-year life and produced a return on investment of 231 to 1 in direct CMS medical expenditure.