A Bayesian non-inferiority approach using experts' margin elicitation - application to the monitoring of safety events.

In settings where evidence is lacking and where some rare but serious safety events have to be monitored during non-inferiority trials, we propose a methodology that avoids an arbitrary margin choice and helps in the decision making at each interim analysis. This decision rule is parametrized to consider the rarity and the relative severity of the events and requires a strong collaboration between physicians and the trial statisticians for the benefit of all. This Bayesian approach could be applied as a complement to the frequentist analysis, so both Data Safety Monitoring Boards and investigators can benefit from such an approach.