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SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics.

Nathan B WikleThu Nguyen-Anh TranBethany GentilescoScott M LeighowEmmy AlbertEmily R StrongKarel Bå IndaHaider InamFuhan YangSajid HossainPhilip ChanWilliam P HanageMaria MessickJustin R PritchardEphraim M HanksMaciej F Boni
Published in: Science advances (2022)
State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states-Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania-that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.
Keyphrases
  • respiratory syndrome coronavirus
  • sars cov
  • heat stress
  • physical activity
  • coronavirus disease
  • middle aged
  • healthcare
  • community dwelling
  • mental health
  • machine learning