Prediction of mortality and major cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes: External validation of UK Prospective Diabetes Study outcomes model version 2 in two European observational cohorts.

The UKPDS-OM2 consistently overpredicted the risk of mortality and MI in both cohorts during follow-up. Period effects may partially explain the differences. Results indicate that transferability is not satisfactory for all outcomes, and new or adjusted risk equations may be needed before applying the model to the Italian or Dutch settings.