Disease progression and mortality with untreated HIV infection: evidence synthesis of HIV seroconverter cohorts, antiretroviral treatment clinical cohorts and population-based survey data.

Synthesis of multiple data sources results in similar overall survival as previous Spectrum parameter assumptions but implies more rapid progression and longer survival in lower CD4 categories. New natural history parameter values improve consistency of model estimates with recent cross-sectional CD4 data and trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation.