Exploring the Impact of Policies to Improve Geographic and Economic Access to Vegetables among Low-Income, Predominantly Latino Urban Residents: An Agent-Based Model.

Modifying the food environment of cities is a promising strategy for improving dietary behaviors, but using traditional empirical methods to test the effectiveness of these strategies remains challenging. We developed an agent-based model to simulate the food environment of Austin, Texas, USA, and to test the impact of different food access policies on vegetable consumption among low-income, predominantly Latino residents. The model was developed and calibrated using empirical data from the FRESH-Austin Study, a natural experiment. We simulated five policy scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2)-(4) expanding geographic and/or economic healthy food access via the Fresh for Less program (i.e., through farm stands, mobile markets, and healthy corner stores); and (5) expanding economic access to vegetables in supermarkets and small grocers. The model predicted that increasing geographic and/or economic access to healthy corner stores will not meaningfully improve vegetable intake, whilst implementing high discounts (>85%) on the cost of vegetables, or jointly increasing geographic and economic access to mobile markets or farm stands, will increase vegetable intake among low-income groups. Implementing discounts at supermarkets and small grocers is also predicted to be an effective policy for increasing vegetable consumption. This work highlights the utility of agent-based modeling for informing food access policies.