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Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.

Ruiyun LiBin ChenTao ZhangZhehao RenYimeng SongYixiong XiaoLin HouJun CaiBo XuMiao LiKaren Kie Yan ChanYing TuMu YangJing YangZhaoyang LiuChong ShenChe WangLei XuQiyong LiuShuming BaoJianqin ZhangYuhai BiYuqi BaiKe DengWusheng ZhangWenyu HuangJason D WhittingtonNils Christian StensethDabo GuanPeng GongBing Xu
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2020)
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
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