Is it possible to model the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity at a population level and across the range of deprivation: Evidence from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).

MSMs allow estimation of effects of simulated calorie-reduction interventions on childhood obesity prevalence and inequalities, although estimates are limited by the accuracy of reported calorie intake. Further work is needed to understand causal pathways and opportunities for intervention. Nevertheless, simulated intervention techniques have promise for informing national policy where experimental data are not available.