Explaining post-traumatic stress symptoms and sleep disturbance in Ukrainian civilians: perceived threat versus objective war exposure.

Objective: This study investigated the impact of war exposure on post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and sleep disturbance across Ukraine. Subjective and objective indicators of war exposure were modelled as predictors of these symptoms. Methods: We created two predictors: first, we used governmental and crowd-sourced data to create an objective war exposure index for each of the 21 non-occupied regions of Ukraine, based on the number of air raid alarms, explosions, and proximity to frontline; and second, we obtained self-report cross-sectional data, using convenience sampling, from a nation-wide survey ( N  = 991) on subjective experience of threat triggered by the war. The survey also measured the outcome variables of PTSS and sleep disturbance. Hierarchical multilevel regressions modelled the relationship of this objective war exposure index with the two outcome variables, after accounting for demographics. A final regression step modelled subjective threat as predictor of these symptoms. Results: We observed strongly elevated levels of PTSS and sleep disturbance and strong regional differences in objective and subjective war indicators. Objective war exposure predicted PTSS but not sleep disturbance, whereas subjective threat predicted both symptom domains. Conclusion: The study demonstrates the utility of objective war exposure data for predicting the prevalence of PTSS in the different regions. The results further underscore the prominent role of subjective appraisal processes in the symptomatology of PTSS and sleep disturbance, thus informing theories on trauma-related disorders. Our results can guide the allocation of mental health services by identifying highly affected regions.