Anticipated reduction in COVID-19 mortality due to population-wide BCG vaccination: evidence from Germany.
Daniela Marín-HernándezDouglas F NixonNathaniel HupertPublished in: Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics (2021)
Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is known to have "bystander benefits" in protecting against heterologous infections; interim analysis of the "ACTIVATE" trial shows protection against respiratory infections in the elderly population. Epidemiologic studies suggest a potential benefit of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 outcomes. Differential past BCG vaccination policies between the former East and West German states provides a unique natural experiment to assess the potential effect of prior BCG vaccination on COVID-19. We estimated a 5% heterologous vaccine efficacy in the highly vaccinated former East Germany using the COVID-19 International Modeling (CoMo) Consortium model. A comparable BCG vaccination campaign undertaken prior to the pandemic in former West Germany, instituted along with known country-wide transmission reduction measures, is associated with a 37% decrease in projected mortality by mid-summer, 2020. These findings support a combined heterologous vaccine and non-pharmaceutical interventions (HVI+NPI) approach to mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic until SARS-CoV-2 specific vaccines are widely distributed.
Keyphrases
- sars cov
- coronavirus disease
- respiratory syndrome coronavirus
- clinical trial
- cardiovascular events
- public health
- climate change
- physical activity
- risk factors
- study protocol
- metabolic syndrome
- type diabetes
- randomized controlled trial
- risk assessment
- cardiovascular disease
- middle aged
- saccharomyces cerevisiae
- insulin resistance
- coronary artery disease
- human health
- skeletal muscle
- respiratory tract