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Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators.

Katie R N FlorkoTravis C TaiWilliam W L CheungSteven H FergusonU Rashid SumailaDavid J YurkowskiMarie Auger-Méthé
Published in: Ecology letters (2021)
Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.
Keyphrases
  • climate change
  • human health
  • antibiotic resistance genes
  • wastewater treatment
  • neural network
  • risk assessment
  • microbial community
  • heavy metals