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Counterfactual estimation of efficacy against placebo for novel PrEP agents using external trial data: example of injectable cabotegravir and oral PrEP in women.

Deborah DonnellFei GaoJames P HughesBrett HanscomLawrence CoreyMyron S CohenSrilatha EdupugantiNyaradzo M MgodiHelen ReesJared M BaetenGlenda GrayLinda Gail BekkerMina C HosseinipourSinéad Delany-Moretlwe
Published in: Journal of the International AIDS Society (2023)
Counterfactual placebo rates of HIV acquisition derived from external trial data in similar locations and time can be used to support estimates of placebo-based efficacy of a novel HIV prevention agent. External trial data must be standardized to be representative of the clinical trial cohort testing the novel HIV prevention agent, accounting for confounders.
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