Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Health Insurance for Low-Income Nursing Home Aides.

We examine how the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion affected the insurance coverage and the sources of coverage among low-income nursing home aides using the 2010-2019 American Community Survey data. Insurance coverage for low-income nursing home aides increased from about 60% to nearly 90% in expansion states but rose to only about 80% in nonexpansion states. Using a difference-in-differences regression design, we find that Medicaid expansion was associated with a 5.1 percentage-point increase in overall insurance coverage. Expansion states had a 12.2 percentage-point gain in Medicaid that was partially offset by a 6.4 percentage-point reduction in private insurance coverage. Our results show that ACA Medicaid expansion increased insurance coverage for low-income nursing home aides; however, there was substantial crowd-out of private insurance coverage in this population. Policymakers should consider expanding Medicaid while incentivizing affordable private health insurance options for low-income nursing home aides to improve insurance coverage.