Predicting the vulnerability of birds to trophic threat posed by phenological mismatch based on nutritional and physiological status of nestlings.

Climate change induced phenological mismatches between nestlings and their optimal food resources have been found to negatively influence the survival of many bird species. Discriminating which species is vulnerable to such threat is difficult only based on the diet observation, and therefore it is necessary to establish a more reliable method to predict the vulnerability of bird species. In the case of Asian short-toed lark (Calandrella cheleensis), we predicted such vulnerability by evaluating whether nestlings can absorb equal level of nutrients from different diets and maintain equal physiological status. We compared the diet, plasma nutrients, plasma insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), body mass and survival rate of nestlings hatched under different optimal food (grasshopper nymph) abundance conditions in two breeding seasons. Plasma glucides, amino acids, tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle metabolites, some fatty acids, IGF-1, body mass and survival rate of the nestlings hatched under medium or low nymph abundance conditions were significantly lower than those of nestlings hatched under high nymph abundance condition. The relative abundance of plasma amino acids, glucides, TCA cycle metabolites and fatty acids were significantly, and positively, correlated with IGF-1 levels, which, in turn, was positively correlated with nestling body mass. These results indicate that the diet with low optimal food proportion was nutritionally inferior to the diet with high optimal food proportion and inhibited the growth of nestlings. Species like Asian short-toed lark is vulnerable to the trophic threat induced by phenological mismatch because the alternative food is insufficient to satisfy the nutritional requirement of nestlings.