Prediction of 5-year overall survival of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma on the pola-R-CHP regimen based on 2-year event-free survival and progression-free survival.

This study aimed to predict the 5-year overall survival (OS) benefit of pola-R-CHP versus R-CHOP in the POLARIX trial based on the 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) rates in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We identified randomized controlled trials (RCT) published before 31 May 2023. The correlation between the logarithmic (log) hazard ratio (HR) for EFS (HR EFS ) or PFS (HR PFS ) and the HR for OS (HR OS ) was estimated at the trial-level. Correlation analysis was performed between 2-year PFS or EFS and 5-year OS rates at the treatment arm-level. Linear regression models were used to calculate the 5-year OS of pola-R-CHP and R-CHOP. In the included 20 RCTs, a linear correlation between HR EFS (r = 0.765) or HR PFS (r = 0.534) and HR OS was observed at the trial- level. Two-year EFS (r = 0.918) or 2-year PFS (r = 0.865) correlated linearly with 5-year OS. Linear regression analysis between 2-year EFS/PFS and 5-year OS gave estimated 5-year OS rates between pola-R-CHP and R-CHOP of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. Two-year EFS and PFS are feasible early endpoints in patients with DLBCL treated primarily with immunochemotherapy. The pola-R-CHP regimen is expected to improve 5-year OS.