Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa.
Stewart JenningsAndrew J ChallinorPatrizia SchweglerJennie I MacdiarmidEdward PopeSarah ChapmanCatherine BradshawHeather ClarkSylvia VetterNuala FittonRichard KingSithembile MwamakambaTshilidzi MadzivhandilaIan MashingaidzeChristian ChombaMasiye NawikoBonani NyhodoNdumiso MazibukoPrecious YekiPamela KuwaliAlfred KambwiriVivian KaziAgatha KiamaAbel SongoleHelen CoskeranClaire QuinnSusannah M SalluAndrew DougillStephen WhitfieldBill KuninNalishebo MeebeloAndrew JamaliDhaquirs KantandeProsper MakundiWinfred MbunguFrank KayulaSue WalkerSibongile ZimbaJoseph Hubert Yamdeu GalaniNdashe KapuluMarcelo Valadares GaldosSamuel EzeHemant TripathiSteven SaitStefan KepinskiEmmanuel LikoyaHenry GreatheadHarriet Elizabeth SmithMarcelin Tonye MahopHelen HarwattMaliha MuzammilGraham W HorganTim G BentonPublished in: Nature food (2024)
Improving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment framework (iFEED) to explore stakeholder-driven scenarios of food system transformation towards climate-smart nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. iFEED translates climate-food-emissions modelling into policy-relevant information using model output implication statements. Results show that diversifying agricultural production towards more micronutrient-rich foods is necessary to achieve an adequate population-level nutrient supply by mid-century. Agricultural areas must expand unless unprecedented rapid yield improvements are achieved. While these transformations are challenging to accomplish and often associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would outsource emissions and be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required.