Strength and resilience of developing brain circuits predict adolescent emotional and stress responses during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound but incompletely understood adverse effects on youth. To elucidate the role of brain circuits in how adolescents responded to the pandemic's stressors, we investigated their prepandemic organization as a predictor of mental/emotional health in the first ~15 months of the pandemic. We analyzed resting-state networks from n = 2,641 adolescents [median age (interquartile range) = 144.0 (13.0) months, 47.7% females] in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study, and longitudinal assessments of mental health, stress, sadness, and positive affect, collected every 2 to 3 months from May 2020 to May 2021. Topological resilience and/or network strength predicted overall mental health, stress and sadness (but not positive affect), at multiple time points, but primarily in December 2020 and May 2021. Higher resilience of the salience network predicted better mental health in December 2020 (β = 0.19, 95% CI = [0.06, 0.31], P = 0.01). Lower connectivity of left salience, reward, limbic, and prefrontal cortex and its thalamic, striatal, amygdala connections, predicted higher stress (β = -0.46 to -0.20, CI = [-0.72, -0.07], P < 0.03). Lower bilateral robustness (higher fragility) and/or connectivity of these networks predicted higher sadness in December 2020 and May 2021 (β = -0.514 to -0.19, CI = [-0.81, -0.05], P < 0.04). These findings suggest that the organization of brain circuits may have played a critical role in adolescent stress and mental/emotional health during the pandemic.