Extrapolation of Survival Curves Using Standard Parametric Models and Flexible Parametric Spline Models: Comparisons in Large Registry Cohorts with Advanced Cancer.
Jodi GrayThomas R SullivanNicholas R LatimerAmy SalterMichael J SorichRobyn L WardJonathan KarnonPublished in: Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making (2020)
In these cohorts, where there was little uncertainty in the observed data, the spline models performed well when extrapolating beyond the observed data. Spline models should be routinely included in the set of models that are fitted when extrapolating cancer survival data.