Maintenance of medium- and high-complexity health services in the context of high patient transition: a time series ecological study of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The study addresses the historical disparities in the distribution of the medium- and high-complexity health network and the limits to budget adjustments between the municipality of Rio de Janeiro and its neighboring municipalities of the Metropolitan region 1. An ecological study was conducted with data related to the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, chosen because it has a large assistance network, while located on the borders of vulnerable and underprivileged areas, characterizing a locus that is representative of the situations faced throughout the country. A decrease in the gross values of the programmed quotas in all municipalities of Rio de Janeiro was observed from 2016 onwards. The temporal trend of the programmed quotas remained stable for all municipalities in the Metropolitan Region 1, even with significant increases in the accomplished quotas for neighboring municipalities. The resulting overload in local expenditure prevents the increase of capacity to anticipate fluctuations in demand, both known and unexpected ones, compromising the responsiveness of the health system regarding its regular operation, as well as the ability to adjust to cope with extraordinary events, essential characteristics of resilience.