Targeted gene expression profiling predicts meningioma outcomes and radiotherapy responses.

Background Surgery is the mainstay of treatment for meningioma, the most common primary intracranial tumor, but improvements in meningioma risk stratification are needed and current indications for postoperative radiotherapy are controversial. Recent studies have proposed prognostic meningioma classification systems using DNA methylation profiling, copy number variants, DNA sequencing, RNA sequencing, histology, or integrated models based on multiple combined features. Targeted gene expression profiling has generated robust biomarkers integrating multiple molecular features for other cancers, but is understudied for meningiomas. Methods Targeted gene expression profiling was performed on 173 meningiomas and an optimized gene expression biomarker (34 genes) and risk score (0 to 1) was developed to predict clinical outcomes. Clinical and analytical validation was performed on independent meningiomas from 12 institutions across 3 continents (N = 1856), including 103 meningiomas from a prospective clinical trial. Gene expression biomarker performance was compared to 9 other classification systems. Results The gene expression biomarker improved discrimination of postoperative meningioma outcomes compared to all other classification systems tested in the independent clinical validation cohort for local recurrence (5-year area under the curve [AUC] 0.81) and overall survival (5-year AUC 0.80). The increase in area under the curve compared to the current standard of care, World Health Organization 2021 grade, was 0.11 for local recurrence (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.07-0.17, P < 0.001). The gene expression biomarker identified meningiomas benefiting from postoperative radiotherapy (hazard ratio 0.54, 95% CI 0.37-0.78, P = 0.0001) and re-classified up to 52.0% meningiomas compared to conventional clinical criteria, suggesting postoperative management could be refined for 29.8% of patients. Conclusions A targeted gene expression biomarker improves discrimination of meningioma outcomes compared to recent classification systems and predicts postoperative radiotherapy responses.