Long-distance dispersal or postglacial contraction? Insights into disjunction between Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains and Taiwan in a cold-adapted herbaceous genus, Triplostegia.

Current disjunct patterns can result from long-distance dispersal or postglacial contraction. We herein investigate the evolutionary history of Triplostegia to elucidate the disjunction between the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountain region (HHM) and Taiwan (TW). Genetic structure of Triplostegia was investigated for 48 populations using sequences from five chloroplast loci and the ribosomal nuclear internal transcribed spacer. Divergence time estimation, ancestral area reconstruction, and species distribution modeling (SDM) were employed to examine the biogeographic history of Triplostegia. Substantial genetic differentiation among populations from southwestern China (SW), Central China (CC), and TW was detected. Triplostegia was inferred to have originated in SW, and diversification began during the late Miocene; CC was colonized in the mid-Pliocene, and TW was finally colonized in the early Pleistocene. SDM suggested an expansion of climatically suitable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and range contraction during the Last interglacial in Triplostegia. Disjunction between HHM and TW in Triplostegia is most likely the consequence of topographic isolation and postglacial contraction. The potential climatic suitability areas for Triplostegia by 2070s (2061-2080) are predicted to slightly shrink and move northward. With continued global warming and human-induced deforestation, extinction risk may increase for the cold-adapted species, and appropriate strategies should be employed for ecosystem conservation.