Quantifying impacts of an environmental intervention using environmental DNA.

Environmental laws around the world require some version of an environmental impact assessment surrounding construction projects and other discrete instances of human development. Information requirements for these assessments vary by jurisdiction, but nearly all require an analysis of biological elements of ecosystems. Amplicon-sequencing - also called metabarcoding - of environmental DNA (eDNA) has made it possible to sample and amplify the genetic material of many species present in those environments, providing a tractable, powerful, and increasingly common way of doing environmental impact analysis for development projects. Here, we analyze a 18-month time-series of water samples taken before, during, and after two culvert removals in a salmonid-bearing freshwater stream. We also sampled multiple control streams to develop a robust background expectation against which to evaluate the impact of this discrete environmental intervention in the treatment stream. We generate calibrated, quantitative metabarcoding data from amplifying the 12s MiFish mtDNA locus and complementary species-specific quantitative PCR data to yield multi-species estimates of absolute eDNA concentrations across time, creeks, and sampling stations. We then use a linear mixed-effects model to reveal patterns of eDNA concentrations over time, and to estimate the effects of the culvert removal on salmonids in the treatment creek. We focus our analysis on four common salmonid species: cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii), coho salmon (O. kisutch), rainbow trout (O. mykiss), and sockeye salmon (O. nerka). We find that one culvert in the treatment creek seemed to have no impact while the second culvert had a large impact on fish passage. The construction itself seemed to have only transient effects on salmonid species during the two construction events. In the context of billions of dollars of court-mandated road culvert replacements taking place in Washington State, USA, our results suggest that culvert replacement can be conducted with only minimal impact of construction to key species of management concern. Furthermore, eDNA methods can be an effective and efficient approach for monitoring hundreds of culverts to prioritize culverts that are required to be replaced. More broadly, we demonstrate a rigorous, quantitative method for environmental impact reporting using eDNA that is widely applicable in environments worldwide. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.