Predictive modelling reveals Australian continental risk hotspots for marine debris interactions with key threatened species.

Anthropogenic debris is a global threat that impacts threatened species through various lethal and sub-lethal consequences, as well as overall ecosystem health. This study used a database of over 24,000 beach surveys of marine debris collated by the Australian Marine Debris Initiative from 2012 to 2021, with two key objectives: (1) identify variables that most influence the occurrence of debris hotspots on a continental scale and (2) use these findings to identify likely hotspots of interaction between threatened species and marine debris. The number of particles found in each beach survey was modelled alongside fifteen biological, social, and physical spatial variables including land use, physical oceanography, population, rainfall, distance to waste facilities, ports, and mangroves to identify the significant drivers of debris deposition. The model of best fit for predicting debris particle abundance was calculated using a generalized additive model. Overall, debris was more abundant at sites near catchments with high annual rainfall (mm), intensive land use (km 2 ), and that were nearer to ports (km) and mangroves (km). These results support previous studies which state that mangroves are a significant sink for marine debris, and that large ports and urbanized catchments are significant sources for marine debris. We illustrate the applicability of these models by quantifying significant overlap between debris hotspots and the distributions for four internationally listed threatened species that exhibit debris interactions; green turtle (26,868 km 2 ), dugong (16,164 km 2 ), Australian sea lion (2903 km 2 ) and Flesh-footed Shearwater (2413 km 2 ). This equates to less than 1% (Flesh-footed Shearwater, Australian sea lion), over 2% (green sea turtle) and over 5% (dugong) of their habitat being identified as areas of high risk for marine debris interactions. The results of this study hold practical value, informing decision-making processes, managing debris pollution at continental scales, as well as identifying gaps in species monitoring.