Poverty, work intensity, and disability: evidence from European countries.

We use 2015-2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions longitudinal data for four European countries (the UK, Germany, France, and Italy) and a dynamic trivariate panel data model to analyze the complex relationship between poverty, work intensity, and disability. We find evidence of genuine state dependence in the three processes and feedback effects from past poverty to work intensity in all countries and from past poverty to disability in the UK, Germany, and Italy. Disability is detrimental to poverty, despite the mitigating role played by disability cash benefits. The magnitude of this effect seems to be associated with the average expenditure on social protection benefits and its distribution across functions. We stress the importance of accounting for the extra costs of disability and the key role work intensity plays in the disability-poverty connection. Finally, adopting a joint estimation strategy appears crucial to consistently estimating the relationship between the three processes.